Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
19 November 2014

WFP’s food security analysis/VAM service is actively monitoring the food security situation across the three primary countries affected by Ebola: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Various assessments are ongoing to better understand the impact of the crisis on food markets and households’ food security. Such information is critical for informing governments’ policies and programmes and the broader humanitarian response.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Population Numbers and Sampling, Food Security Analysis
18 November 2014
  • Governments and humanitarian actors need estimates of how many people are food insecure due to the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
  • We estimate that almost 1.7 million people are currently food insecure — 200,000 are food insecure because of Ebola.
  • Low Estimate for March 2015: If the disease continues to spread at the average rate observed in the previous 42 days and then begins to slow down by January 2015, as predicted by health experts, the number of food insecure will likely reach 2.3 million. The Ebola effect accounts for 750,000 people.
  • High Estimate for March 2015: If the disease spreads at the maximum rate observed in the previous 42 days and then begins to slow down by January 2015, the number of food insecure will likely reach 3.0 million. In this scenario, the Ebola effect accounts for 1.4 million people.
  • This analysis shows that the disease will impact urban areas more than rural areas in all three countries. Provinces that were relatively food secure before this crisis are among the worst affected.
  • The cost of inaction is extremely high. Even if the disease slows down as of January, the number of people rendered food insecure by Ebola is substantial. A two-pronged approach is therefore necessary: most importantly, the disease must be contained; at the same time, appropriate assistance must be provided for all those whose lives and livelihoods are being directly or indirectly affected by this unprecedented crisis.
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Population Numbers and Sampling, Food Security Analysis
17 November 2014

WFP VAM publishes ‘Special Focus’ documents when an emerging food security issue deserves in-depth attention. Each ‘Special Focus’ bulletin provides essential elements of analysis for decision makers. Sources of information include WFP’s VAM  newtwork of VAM experts, and  our partners.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
30 September 2014


  • Border closures and movement restrictions reduce trade volumes in Ebola-affected sub-region.
  • Monthly prices remained stable between August and September 2014 in Guinea with the exception of Labé market, were local rice prices fell by 21 percent.
  • Boarder closure and movement restrictions in Guinea cause retail and producer prices for potatoes to drop significantly in recent months.
  • In Liberia, prices for imported rice have continued to increase beyond their seasonal pattern.
  • The exchanges rates of the Liberian Dollar (LRD) and the Sierra Leone Leone (SLL) against the US Dollar have stabilized (LRD) / increased (SLL) in September. In Liberia, however, the exchange rate remains more than 13 percent below September 2013 levels, which maintains inflationary pressure on domestic prices of imported food commodities.
  • 16 weekly markets closed in Senegal along the border with Guinea, causing significant trade contraction between the two countries.
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
31 August 2014

Key statements as of 26 August 2014:

  • Guinea: Border closure measures (Senegal/Guinea) seem to significantly increase food prices in the Labe market. The full extent of Ebola on food prices remains unclear and will continue to be closely monitored and analysed;
  • Liberia: The official announcement of the Ebola outbreak in March 2014 did not seem to affect the price of imported rice at first. However, the deteriorating situation is a likely contributor to the increase in food prices observed since July 2014. The current analysis suggests that the increase in rice prices is due in part i) to the devaluation of the Liberian Dollar, ii) a general increase of international rice prices and iii) movement restrictions in certain parts of Liberia.
  • Sierra Leone: Similar to Liberia, it seems that the geographic spread of Ebola has led to a price increase of imported and local rice since July. As of 25 August 2014, data on food prices is extremely limited to enable a reliable price analysis.
  • Regional: The situation in Nigeria will continue to be closely monitored.
Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 July 2013
  • Although domestic food production has recovered since the end of the conflict in 2002 and provides a major part of Sierra Leone’s staples rice and cassava as well as pulses, oils, vegetables and fruits, the country remains in food deficit.
  • Households spend on average 63% of their total expenditure on food. Borrowing money to buy food is common (52%). Three quarters of the population rely on markets as their main source of food.
  • Markets in Sierra Leone are poorly organized, only partially integrated for the main commodities and conduct remains unstandardized.
  • Despite taking advantage of the good economic performance, inflation remains high.
  • The low number of customers on the markets could be explained due to their purchasing power, less diversity of food in the markets, and high fragmentation of markets.
Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 August 2012

Atypical drought conditions in the US causes wheat, maize and soya prices to soar (figure 1). According to data record-ed by the World Bank in July 2012, wheat increased by 50%, maize by 45% and soya by 30% since mid-June 2012. By contrast, rice prices remained stable until July 2012. Compared to the 5-year average, maize, soya and wheat increased by 59%, 44% and 31%, respectively, and rice increased only by 8%. A new bullish phase in inter-national markets could impact regional markets and the food access of West African households already affected by the current nutrition and food crisis.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
30 June 2011

 Sierra Leone - Market Bulletins, 2011

Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 May 2010

The end of the conflicts in Liberia and Sierra Leone has led to an increase in agricultural production and trade. Recent market monitoring activities in both countries have identified cross-border trade as a factor affecting aggregate and household food security. This study aims to further investigate the issue, thereby contributing to a better knowledge of the determinants of household food security. This report offers an overview of the main cross-border trade flows, an analysis of the market actor’s characteristics and a discussion of the link between cross-border trade and household food security.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
28 February 2010

This report provides important information on what motivates migration, who migrates, and where they end up working. It highlights the immense economic benefits of migration, both to individuals and the broader economy.