Publications
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
25 November 2014

WFP’s food security analysis/VAM service is actively monitoring the food security situation across the three primary countries affected by Ebola: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Various assessments are ongoing to better understand the impact of the crisis on food markets and households’ food security. Such information is critical for informing governments’ policies and programmes and the broader humanitarian response.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Population Numbers and Sampling, Food Security Analysis
24 November 2014
  • Governments and humanitarian actors need estimates of how many people are food insecure due to the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
  • We estimate that almost 1.7 million people are currently food insecure — 200,000 are food insecure because of Ebola.
  • Low Estimate for March 2015: If the disease continues to spread at the average rate observed in the previous 42 days and then begins to slow down by January 2015, as predicted by health experts, the number of food insecure will likely reach 2.3 million. The Ebola effect accounts for 750,000 people.
  • High Estimate for March 2015: If the disease spreads at the maximum rate observed in the previous 42 days and then begins to slow down by January 2015, the number of food insecure will likely reach 3.0 million. In this scenario, the Ebola effect accounts for 1.4 million people.
  • This analysis shows that the disease will impact urban areas more than rural areas in all three countries. Provinces that were relatively food secure before this crisis are among the worst affected.
  • The cost of inaction is extremely high. Even if the disease slows down as of January, the number of people rendered food insecure by Ebola is substantial. A two-pronged approach is therefore necessary: most importantly, the disease must be contained; at the same time, appropriate assistance must be provided for all those whose lives and livelihoods are being directly or indirectly affected by this unprecedented crisis.
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Population Numbers and Sampling, Food Security Analysis
23 November 2014

WFP VAM publishes ‘Special Focus’ documents when an emerging food security issue deserves in-depth attention. Each ‘Special Focus’ bulletin provides essential elements of analysis for decision makers. Sources of information include WFP’s VAM  newtwork of VAM experts, and  our partners.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
30 September 2014

Highlights

  • Border closures and movement restrictions reduce trade volumes in Ebola-affected sub-region.
  • Monthly prices remained stable between August and September 2014 in Guinea with the exception of Labé market, were local rice prices fell by 21 percent.
  • Boarder closure and movement restrictions in Guinea cause retail and producer prices for potatoes to drop significantly in recent months.
  • In Liberia, prices for imported rice have continued to increase beyond their seasonal pattern.
  • The exchanges rates of the Liberian Dollar (LRD) and the Sierra Leone Leone (SLL) against the US Dollar have stabilized (LRD) / increased (SLL) in September. In Liberia, however, the exchange rate remains more than 13 percent below September 2013 levels, which maintains inflationary pressure on domestic prices of imported food commodities.
  • 16 weekly markets closed in Senegal along the border with Guinea, causing significant trade contraction between the two countries.
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
31 August 2014

Key statements as of 26 August 2014:

  • Guinea: Border closure measures (Senegal/Guinea) seem to significantly increase food prices in the Labe market. The full extent of Ebola on food prices remains unclear and will continue to be closely monitored and analysed;
  • Liberia: The official announcement of the Ebola outbreak in March 2014 did not seem to affect the price of imported rice at first. However, the deteriorating situation is a likely contributor to the increase in food prices observed since July 2014. The current analysis suggests that the increase in rice prices is due in part i) to the devaluation of the Liberian Dollar, ii) a general increase of international rice prices and iii) movement restrictions in certain parts of Liberia.
  • Sierra Leone: Similar to Liberia, it seems that the geographic spread of Ebola has led to a price increase of imported and local rice since July. As of 25 August 2014, data on food prices is extremely limited to enable a reliable price analysis.
  • Regional: The situation in Nigeria will continue to be closely monitored.
Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 August 2012

Atypical drought conditions in the US causes wheat, maize and soya prices to soar (figure 1). According to data record-ed by the World Bank in July 2012, wheat increased by 50%, maize by 45% and soya by 30% since mid-June 2012. By contrast, rice prices remained stable until July 2012. Compared to the 5-year average, maize, soya and wheat increased by 59%, 44% and 31%, respectively, and rice increased only by 8%. A new bullish phase in inter-national markets could impact regional markets and the food access of West African households already affected by the current nutrition and food crisis.

Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
30 April 2011

La hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires en Guinée s’inscrit dans un contexte international de hausse des prix affectant les ménages les plus vulnérables à travers le monde. La présente étude propose d’analyser le contexte très particulier de la Guinée, l’impact de cette hausse sur la sécurité alimentaire des ménages, les stratégies mises en place par les ménages Ŕet leur profil- pour y faire face, les réponses institutionnelles apportées et enfin les recommandations en terme d’assistance et d’accompagnement. L’étude s’est concentrée dans les communes urbaines de : Conakry, Kankan, Labé et N’Zérékoré.

Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 March 2010

The study aims to provide decision makers with baseline information on cross-border trade and food security, including market flow maps and an analysis of trader capacities and incentives. The study was sponsored by USAID and jointly carried out by CILSS, FAO, FEWS NET, WFP and national market information systems.

Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 December 2009

The study aims to describe system markets in Guinea and analyse the links between the household food security and performance of contracts, particularly during periods of shocks.

Market Analysis, Food Security Analysis
31 October 2009

In January and February 2007, a general strike affected the scope of the national territory in Guinea. The strike has been marked by many events, public disturbances, the introduction of martial law, a curfew and closure of land borders.