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Pakistan - Impacts of Shocks on Household Income and Food Consumption Simulation Modeling, 2011

The study is composed of two main parts: the vulnerability profile of the country and the shock simulation model. The first assesses the vulnerability context of Pakistan using baseline data (i.e. without shocks, identifies the areas and livelihood groups that are most vulnerable to potential shocks and describes the food security situation of households measured in terms of caloric intake. This vulnerability profile provides contextual information for the modeling by highlighting factors that make household sensible to market and climate shocks. Part two develops a framework for the Shock Impact Modeling System (SIMS) which estimates the impact of the recent market and climate shocks on household food consumption in Pakistan. The simulation results show which population groups are most affected by previous shocks and which ones are likely to be most affected by future shocks.