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Mozambique - A Market Performance Analysis in Mozambique, September 2016

Mozambique - A Market Performance Analysis in Mozambique, September 2016

This report presents the findings of a rapid market assessment conducted in Tete and Gaza provinces to understand the impact of the drought caused by El Niño 2015/16 and provide recommendations on the most appropriate assistance for the upcoming lean season.

Highlights:

  • An uneven harvest has been forecasted nationwide – largely poor in Gaza province, and mixed in Tete province.
  • Given the regional shortage of maize and the country’s difficult economic situation, full reliance on additional maize imports would be challenging.
  • Intra-country trade from surplus provinces will not fill the production gap in deficit areas.
  • Trade flows have changed in drought-affected provinces.
  • Food markets are already under pressure, and additional monitoring is needed to track market functionality over time.
  • Cash-based transfers (CBT) would not be recommendable in the coming months in most rural areas.
  • Linking up with large food traders could be a way to reach out to remote rural areas.
  • Market-based food assistance could support affected urban populations.

The report presents also a beta version of a Market Performance Index. This index was designed to support the findings of the field visits with quantitative indicators with the aim to have a better understanding of the evolving conditions that might make a market more or less conducive for cash based transfers.